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Envelope-to: victor.lee@saraya.world
Delivery-date: Mon, 12 Jan 2026 09:02:22 +0800
Date: Sun, 11 Jan 2026 19:01:33 -0600 (CST)
From: Allianz Trade <news_apac@allianz-trade.com>
Reply-To: info_apac@allianz-trade.com
To: victor.lee@saraya.world
Message-ID: <1676382081.8852894.1768179693342@mlm-mktmail-batch-0001-a-002.prod.gbr2.marketo.org>
Subject: Our Economic Outlook 2026-27 is out.
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Global growth remains strong, but risks loom ahead
Hi Victor,

Global GDP growth is exceeding expectations: We now expect it to reach +2.9% in 2026 following a robust +3% in 2025. The +0.4pp upward revision in our forecast is largely driven by the US and China, which together account for over two-thirds of the adjustment.
US economy growth
Reduced trade war impacts, AI-driven sector growth, positive fiscal and credit impulses, raise our GDP forecast to +2.5% in 2026.
China remains resilient
China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in 2026, driven by stronger external demand, strategic rerouting, expanded market shares, a weaker currency, and competitive pricing.
Downside risks remain
Global trade showed resilience in 2025, expecting 3.5% growth. However, the negative impact of higher tariffs may slow growth to 1.3% in 2026, with North America and Asia-Pacific facing the largest decelerations.
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<div class="mktEditable" id="titletitletext05a65255-74bb-4e93-af6d-c7d2bdd09545">
 Global growth remains strong, but risks loom ahead 
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<div style="text-align: left; line-height: 21px;">
 Hi Victor, 
<br /> 
<p>Global GDP growth is exceeding expectations: We now expect it to reach <span style="color: #13a0d3;">+2.9% in 2026</span> following a robust +3% in 2025. The +0.4pp upward revision in our forecast is largely driven by the US and China, which together account for over two-thirds of the adjustment.<br /></p> 
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<div class="mktEditable" id="smallimgtexttitleb2c497389-72ab-4fb3-a4cd-b72bb048f49a">
 US economy growth 
<br /> 
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<div class="mktEditable bodylink" id="smallimgtexttextbedda84e9-2b7b-42c8-a927-6e73c6b3fb89"> 
<div style="line-height: 21px;">
 Reduced trade war impacts, AI-driven sector growth, positive fiscal and credit impulses, raise our 
<span style="color: #13a0d3;">GDP forecast to +2.5% in 2026</span>. 
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<div class="mktEditable" id="smallimgtexttitleb6eb24c2e-b16c-409a-8f8c-435c29736a6a">
 China remains resilient 
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 China's GDP is forecasted to 
<span style="color: #13a0d3;">grow by 4.7% in 2026</span>, driven by stronger external demand, strategic rerouting, expanded market shares, a weaker currency, and competitive pricing. 
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<div class="mktEditable" id="smallimgtexttitleb672d616a-9a0b-4289-b115-5c124832df49">
 Downside risks remain 
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 Global trade showed resilience in 2025, expecting 3.5% growth. However, the negative impact of higher tariffs may 
<span style="color: #13a0d3;">slow growth to 1.3% in 2026</span>, with North America and Asia-Pacific facing the largest decelerations. 
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